Game Changers 2023: The Cocaine Flash-to-Bang in 2024
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Coca prices have collapsed in parts of Colombia amid record hectares of cultivation. Could oversupply do what years of eradication have failed to achieve, prompting coca farmers to switch to legal crops?
This is wishful thinking, as world cocaine prices remain stable even as new markets in Asia are developed by traffickers, with European mafias assuming a growing role in the global trade. 2024 will be the year when the cocaine supply chain catches up with record levels of coca cultivation.
The reasons behind the decline in coca prices in parts of Colombia obey three different dynamics: conflict in areas of cultivation, which creates uncertainty and keeps buyers away; the saturation of drug smuggling routes out of Colombia amid high seizures; and the extraordinarily rapid growth in coca cultivation, with which supply chains have struggled to keep pace. But we believe that during 2024 this gap will be closed, and global organized crime, especially in Colombia and Peru, will enjoy bloated profits.
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