Does a Criminal Record Predict Future Crime Forever? A New Study of 16 Million People Says No

A new study of more than 16.5 million people spanning 40 years of criminal-charge records finds that the predictive value of a past criminal charge does not last forever.

Instead, it fades in a highly consistent, measurable pattern, and largely converges with the general population's ordinary risk level within about nine to ten years.

• The report draws on 746 million person-year observations of criminal charges across five states (Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Texas, and Washington) from 1980 to 2020, one of the largest datasets ever assembled for this purpose.
• The research team developed a new statistical framework to directly measure, year by year, how much predictive value a single criminal charge retains as time passes.

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