Analysis of 150 U.S. Cities Shows One of the Greatest Drops in Gun Violence

Gun violence is trending downward for more than three quarters of cities with the most shootings, according to a new analysis by The Trace’s Gun Violence Data Hub. For more than half of those cities, the rate of decrease is even greater than it was last year — when the drop in gun homicides broke all previous records. 

The downward trend includes red and blue cities, in both red and blue states, in all of the country’s regions. It includes cities where shootings are traditionally sky-high, like Baltimore, and much safer cities, like Austin, Texas.

When these downward trends began, it was unclear at first what might be causing them. Politicians looking at individual city slices of the data have tried to claim credit for local initiatives. At first, many experts declared it too early to disentangle the effects of the pandemic winding down, the justice system coming back to life, the cresting of Black Lives Matter unrest, economic variables, and a host of other possible factors. Now, after two more years of sharp declines, Roman said, it seems that the answer is people: Teachers, counselors, after-school program staff, basketball coaches, violence interrupters, and others who are on the front lines of fighting gun violence.

The American Rescue Plan Act, passed in 2021 included $130.2 billion to help counties and cities. The stated intent was to help local governments remain solvent during the pandemic, but for many communities it was the first direct federal funding ever received.

The next year, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act designated $250 million over five years for community-based violence prevention initiatives, and $750 million for state programs including red flag laws and mental health courts.

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